A new World Bank report places Uganda ahead of most of its regional peers in economic growth for 2026, with an expansion growth rate of 6.4 percent.
The Global Economic Prospects 2026 report indicates that Uganda’s projected growth will surpass that of the Democratic Republic of Congo at 5.1 percent, Kenya at 4.9 percent and Tanzania at 6.2 percent.
Within the East African region, only Rwanda is expected to grow at a faster rate of 7.2 percent.
The World Bank noted that Uganda is benefiting from momentum established in 2025, when the economy reached its highest growth rate since the pandemic at 6.3 percent.
This performance has been fueled by a recovery in household consumption, increased government spending and strong investment activity.
Uganda’s growth reflects a combination of domestic demand recovery and export resilience, the report stated, specifically citing the role of coffee exports amid favorable global prices.
While Uganda is expected to outperform its neighbors, the World Bank warned that the broader sub-Saharan African recovery remains fragile. Regional growth is projected to stabilize at 4.3 percent in 2026, which the bank said is still insufficient to make significant progress in reducing extreme poverty.
The report also pointed to risks from global trade fragmentation. While Uganda has limited direct exposure, the World Bank noted that countries heavily dependent on the U.S. market could face difficulties if the African Growth and Opportunity Act is not renewed when it expires in late 2025.
Additionally, the scaling back of international development assistance since 2024 has left many African nations with tighter budgets and a weakened capacity to absorb external shocks.
Dr. Ramathan Ggoobi Uganda’s Permanent Secretary/Secretary to the Treasury, projects strong economic growth for Uganda in 2026, with the economy expanding towards $68.4 billion (from around $59 billion in 2025) and per capita income rising to $1,324 by June 2026, as Uganda nears middle income status driven by oil, infrastructure, and focus on key sectors like agro-industrialization under the National Development Plan iv. He anticipates 6.6% growth for FY 2025/26, accelerating to over 7% medium-term, with oil production in FY 2026/27 significantly boosting manufacturing, construction, and services
According to Ggoobi Uganda’s economy is expected to reach approximately $68.4 billion by June 2026, with a target to reach $500 billion by 2040.
Key drivers being Oil & gas sector, infrastructure investment, strengthened agriculture, services growth, and increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).